The Tribalisation of British Politics

The Long-Term Significance of 7th May

British politics are going tribal! Even before all the results are in, it is clear that May 7^th 2026 saw the collapse of the old TweedleLab and TweedleCon duopoly in England, and the virtual obliteration of Labour as a national party.

Reform, the primary beneficiary of the outburst of rage against the Westminster elite, shrugged off the wishful thinking that Farage had made a dangerous error by taking on high-profile failed Tories and running adverts featuring his token ‘ethnic’ candidates.

The relentless Reform advance across every still largely indigenous part of the country is matched by the striking success of the Greens and Muslim independents in the heavily ‘enriched’ cities

The white working-class electoral insurgency which started with the BNP (in many areas, such as Sunderland and Basildon, in which Reform have just made their most stunning gains) has spread into middle-class areas too.

Norfolk County Council, for example, saw a Reform landslide, on top of which Rupert Lowe’s Great Yarmouth First seized all of the town’s ten Council seats. Farage’s party has also taken Essex, by winning in a number of more well-to-do areas in which actual nationalist parties have made no impact in the past.

The confirmation of Lowe’s huge popularity in Great Yarmouth is something to which I will return at the end of this analysis, since this, and the success of Farage’s civ-nat electoral rebellion, are by far the most important outcome for nationalists to consider.

While Reform took some hundreds of seats off the Tories, it is Labour which has been hit hardest by the turquoise tsunami. The Labour results in key northern councils say it all: These are all areas where not so long ago it was said that they “weigh the Labour vote, rather than counting it”. In the heartlands Blair and Starmer so arrogantly betrayed, the once all-mighty party of the working class was in several cases totally wiped out.

To give one example, Reform UK has become the largest party on Kirklees Council after previously having no representation at all, while the ruling party Labour failed to secure a single seat. Reform won 29 seats, with 14 Independents, 12 Greens, nine Conservatives and five Liberal Democrats also elected, meaning no overall control for any party.

Kirklees is in the heart of what used to be the heavy woollen area of West Yorkshire. Muslim enclaves such as Saville Town, completely with several gigantic mosques, sit uneasily in the midst of still majority English areas. The segregation and mutual suspicion are palpable, and Labour have finally paid the price for their grotesque betrayal of their old white working-class base.

As in so many areas, there is a very clear correlation between areas in which the BNP had councillors elected in some seats and came a very good second in others, and those which have now turned to Reform in a big way.

Labour were only saved from the Kirklees scale of humiliation in other parts of the country by the fact that, in many councils, only one-third of the seats were up for grabs. Hence, in places like Sunderland, Reform won a clean sweep but will have to wait until next year’s wave of elections to finish the job and take control.

Such results are payback for Labour’s obsession with importing and chasing immigrant voters – particularly the Muslim block - but, ironically, the election saw even these groups turn against Starmer & Co. Labour was devastated by the Greens and Muslim independents in inner-city wards of London and Birmingham.

In multi-cultural areas which still have a significant white population, the Green surge was definitely pegged back by the last-minute but extensive campaign in the controlled media to portray their Jewish leader, Jack Polanski, and many of their candidates, as dangerous ‘antisemites’. The relentless campaign of demonisation which the Israeli-funded Campaign Against Antisemitism ran against Jeremy Corbyn is being repeated against the Greens.

In fully ‘enriched’ areas, however, strident anti-Zionism is now an election winner. Minority tribalisation on the Gaza issue handed the Greens victory in the Lewisham and Hackney mayoral contests. Basically, multi-cultural areas saw Labour hammered by the Greens, while in overwhelmingly Muslim enclaves they have been replaced by Islamic independents. Labour spent decades importing and building these immigrant powerbases, but has just lost them to a combination of uninhibited Marxism and ethno-religious tribalism.

The scale of Labour’s problem with the Greens is summed up by one stunning result. The Labour leader of Camden council, Richard Olszewski, lost his Holborn and Covent Garden seat to the Greens, who also replaced the two other Labour councillors in the ward. The ward is part of the Holborn and St Pancras constituency, which is the once rock-solid Labour seat held by – until 2029 - Keir Starmer!

The parallel success of Reform and the Greens leaves no political space in which the party can manoeuvre. Move to the right in an effort to push back Farage in the now smashed Red Wall, and even the metropolitan middle-class luvvies who – mainly thanks to the attacks on Polanski – stuck with Labour this time will peel off or stay at home.

Pivot left in the hope of fending off the Greens, and the appeal of Reform would grow even stronger. Plus, the bond markets are set to punish any further tax hikes or unfunded spending pledges by creating a financial crisis which could lead to an IMF bailout – which could come with an early general election among its conditions.

Labour are caught in a deadly electoral pincer and are out of realistic options. The fate of Jeremy Corbyn, and Starmer’s strong personal Zionist ties, make an attempt to claw back Muslim support by making pro-Palestinian noises unthinkable. The least bad option is probably to go all-in on rejoining the EU, since the Brexit voters who would be disgusted have already given up on Labour anyway. Proportional Representation is another life raft which Labour might now inspect more closely

The Brussels gambit would bring its own very special risk: While May 7^th saw a big increase in turnout, it was still generally below 50%. If the political elite think that this time was bad, if they were to pull a stunt like that, they would seriously risk mobilising a large proportion of the 50% who are so disgusted with all politicians that they’ve given up voting.

Enough of the well-deserved problems of the Old Gang. What about the new kids on the block, Reform and Restore? The former aren’t genuine nationalists at all, and Rupert Lowe is essentially a typical Monday Club-style Tory from the late 1960s. But what they are isn’t the issue here, it is their results which really matter to nationalists and for the future.

The Reform advance, as we have already seen, is staggering. Its success in so may Red Wall seats gives the lie to the wishful thinking (which, I have to admit, I somewhat shared) that Farage taking on board so many failed Tory ex-Ministers would damage their credibility among former Labour voters.

The same is true for those who predicted that Reform’s social media adverts proudly displaying their couple of dozen token non-white candidates would put voters off. I never believed this; outside of the social media bubble of the actual race-hate, far-far-right, even people who are actually ‘racist’ like to think that they’re not. Nigel’s tokens fit right in with that mindset.

The next ‘Nigel is doomed’ tale will emerge from the fact that there will be a steady stream of newly elected Reform councillors who step down, are bullied into resigning by leftist intimidation or simply prove useless. We used to have this problem in the BNP and, take it from me, while it is unfortunate, it doesn’t really make any big difference.

The public know that a few poor performers out of several thousand, highlighted by their opponents, tell them nothing significant about a party. It is particularly ridiculous when such propaganda comes from parties of government whose own MPs have been caught repeatedly with their fingers in the public purse, their trousers round their ankles, and doing what they’ve done to assorted secretaries and rentboys to the country as a whole.

Contrary to all the claims that Farage & Co had “peaked too soon” and “lost momentum”, Reform shook the old parties to their core. It has doomed Starmer, and thus thrown Labour into a prolonged and messy leadership contest which will pile even more fuel on the fires destroying the last remnants of inherited political loyalties.

Farage is by far the most canny and ruthless political operator to have emerged in mainland Britain in a lifetime. Those who predict his imminent electoral demise will continue to damage their own credibility until he has become Prime Minister and then lets his voters down.

That, of course, would open the door to huge advances by Restore, particularly if the counter-jihad “Civil War UK” plot produces any serious result. But the idea that “Restore can win in 2029” remans delusional.

It would take more than a dip in Reform’s support; the party – now by far the most popular among Britain’s indigenous tribes - would have to cease to exist. Every last Reform voter would have to switch to Restore, including all those who insist on thinking of themselves as “not racist”. And then Rupert would have to find about two million more on top of that.

While looking at reality, however, we must acknowledge that the result for Rupert Lowe’s Great Yarmouth First outfit was perhaps the most remarkable of the entire election. GYF contested the ten Norfolk County Council seats in his parliamentary constituency, and they won every single one of them, with swamping majorities.

They won more votes in these local elections than Lowe received as the winning Reform candidate in the constituency. This is even more remarkable given that Reform came second in nine of the ten divisions. The two parties standing on anti-immigration promises in the wide range of working-class, middle-class and retirement areas of the Great Yarmouth constituency took two-thirds of the entire vote!

People who complain that the British “just won’t wake up” are talking nonsense; the British public are wide awake to the problem. It’s the parties exploiting this awareness which are weak or still asleep to the harsh reality of what is coming.

What the Yarmouth result shows us is that millions of indigenous Brits are already way to the ‘right’ of Nigel Farage. Restore can indeed beat Reform - provided that they are perceived as the more credible of the two. Not as the ones with the most attractive policies, but with the best better chance of beating Labour in the constituency in question. That would do it, but nothing else will.

This is the problem for Restore and, for all their great showing in Yarmouth, it is a huge one. Rupert Lowe is very special; he is a popular and hard-working sitting MP. He has the entire online counter-jihad movement rooting for him, amplifying his own huge social media reach and the popularity of his tough soundbites.

But that will do very little to help even the keenest unknowns standing for the party anywhere else, and up against far better funded and better organised Reform candidates. If Reform manage to get a few star candidates – Jeremy Clarkson would fit the bill – they could win too.

The stunning success in Great Yarmouth also suggests that if Mr. Lowe were to organise his very substantial following into a serious grass-roots machine, and concentrate all his efforts and funds on building a real base in a dozen or so carefully-picked constituencies, then it would be possible that the Yarmouth result could be replicated.

But other than that, everything I wrote before May 7^th about this still holds true. The most that Restore can possibly achieve in 2029 is to split the Reform vote and hand Britain over to the Coalition of Chaos. The surge in the number and size of teams putting out Restore leaflets only adds to that risk. Putting out leaflets outside of (and even during) elections helps to build a party, but it alone doesn’t win elections. Ask any old NF or BNP hand to confirm that.

2034, by contrast, could be a very different matter. In fact, “Restore in ‘34” would be a very good guideline and slogan for Mr. Lowe to adopt right now. He probably won’t, since the Great Yarmouth success has only made it easier for the inexperienced and gullible to believe that it can happen before then.

But, for nationalists, that really doesn’t make a lot of difference. What matters to us is that there is a very serious effort to spark a civil war in our country. The dire economic and social pain heading our way, thanks to the Iran War and the death throes of the Labour government, make it even more likely than before that it will succeed.

Real nationalists need to stop worrying about theoretical opportunities for semi-nationalist conservative parties to come to power, and start focussing on the only thing that really matters:

How to prepare as many as possible of our communities to face the coming storm, to deter aggression against them and to defend themselves when the state either abdicates its duty to protect them or simply loses the ability to do so.

As a reading of my previous essays on this vital subject will immediately make clear, I am not talking here about weapons or violence or aggression, but of the need – and potential – to build community cohesion, confidence and grass-roots institutions.

Britain, and indeed the entire West, is entering a time when tribal loyalties become the basis of political organisation. Britain is heading for balkanisation, no matter what we do or do not do. There is not even the chance that Restore’s much-promoted ‘remigration’ can happen this side of massive civil unrest and de facto balkanisation.

We cannot change this fact; the ‘peaceful solution’ ship sailed nearly two decades ago, when Matt Goodwin, Douglas Murray and many others like them now pushing tough soundbites on immigration worked so hard to stop the British National Party.

We are where we are, not where we would have liked to be. Civil war is coming, even though most of our people and an even bigger proportion of Muslims don’t want it. Unfortunately, communal violence quickly sweeps away such reasonableness and desires for easy lives.

That being the case, all we can do now is to work to ensure that as many of our people as possible have the leadership and the positive examples to enable them to secure their safety and rights in that balkanised future.

In this regard, Restore now presents Britain’s genuine nationalists with a ready-made platform from which to recruit and organise the urgently needed cadre of community-based activists and organisers. To say this is not to endorse Rupert Lowe, or to ignore regrettable facts such as his penchant for ‘gallant little Israel’, or even to pretend that ‘remigration’ is remotely possible. Nor is it to fall for the fantasy that parliamentary politics can ‘save Britain’ as a remotely normal state.

It is simply to address the only fact that matters in the real world: In order to save our people, we need the biggest possible pond in which to fish, and Restore is the only pond in town containing our kind of fish and unpolluted by liberalism. Ironically, the things I will set out should be done with those fish also happen to be the things which Rupert Lowe needs to do if he is indeed to win more seats in 2029.